BJP set to retain Madhya Pradesh for fourth straight term: ABP Opinion Poll

NEW DELHI: The BJP, which is ruling Madhya Pradesh for the last 15 years, is marginally ahead of the Congress and may end up securing a clear majority in the upcoming assembly elections. A pre-poll survey conducted by ABP News and C-Voter has found that the incumbent BJP may get 111-121 seats while the Congress is slated to get between 100-110 seats. The majority mark in the 230-member state assembly is at 116 seats. The Congress, according to the survey, is witnessing a bumper increase in its vote share with 40 per cent of the people voting for the party, almost 15 per cent more than it received in 2013. However, the grand old party is still unable to match the BJP which is set to get 41 per cent vote share, five per cent less than previous assembly elections. Other players, including the BSP, will fall in the remaining 19 per cent vote share, which may help them in getting 6-12 seats. In another key finding, 45 per cent of the respondents are of the opinion that chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who is seeking a fourth term, should get another chance while 43 per cent said it's time for the Chouhan government to go; 12 per cent chose to remain silent.

#ABPOpinionPoll - Madhya Pradesh (230 seats): As per the survey, the BJP is tipped to win 116 seats while Congress may get 105 seats in the 230-member assembly. The other parties contesting here are likely to get about 9 seats in total. https://t.co/DklVA2kRqn pic.twitter.com/iF4PlBBuSq

— ABP News (@abpnewstv) November 8, 2018

Unemployment and inflation are the top concerns of voters in Madhya Pradesh. When asked what will be the most important issue while voting in the upcoming Assembly elections, 21 per cent said 'lack of jobs' and 20 per cent said 'price rise'. Issues like poverty, development and corruption took a back set as they were major concerns for only eight, seven and six per cent of respondents respectively. The survey revealed over 50 per cent of the people are satisfied with the works done by the Shivraj Singh Chouhan's government in the last five years; 25 per cent said they are 'completely satisfied' while 32 per cent said they are 'somewhat satisfied'. 41 per cent of the voters are disgruntled with the ruling BJP in the state with 19 per cent saying they are 'somewhat dissatisfied' and 22 per cent suggesting they are 'completely dissatisfied'. The survey also highlighted that the opposition Congress failed to take issues like the multi-billion dollar PNB scam among the people as 58 per cent of the respondents said they have not heard about the fraud involving diamantaires Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi. In the survey, Shivraj Singh Chouhan remained the top choice for the chief ministerial post with 37 per cent of the respondents favouring the BJP leader. Jyotiraditya Scindia of Congress was the pick of 24 per cent while 10 per cent want to see veteran Congressman and two-time chief minister Kamal Nath as the head of the state once more. Also, there's a strong perception among the people of Madhya Pradesh that the Narendra Modi government is corrupt. When asked how corrupt do they see the NDA government at the Centre, 29 per cent said 'very corrupt' while 30 per cent said 'somewhat corrupt'. Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to remain hugely popular among the voters across the state with 64 per cent of the respondents saying they 'like' the PM. Elections in Madhya Pradesh are scheduled for November 28 while counting of votes will be taken up on December 11. In the previous election, the BJP bagged 165 seats while the Congress won 58. Other Key Takeaways

• Congress and BJP locked in a dead heat
• Congress leads in Chambal and Malwa Tribal regions, BJP leads in Mahakoshal and Malwa North; neck and neck in Vindhya Pradesh
• Voters’ spontaneous preference for CM: Shivraj 37%, Scindia 24%, Kamal Nath 10%, Digvijay Singh 3%
• Chouhan’s popularity is highest in Malwa North, Scindia’s in Chambal region
• Majority of Congress leaning voters want Jyotiraditya Scindia to be CM if Congress wins elections; BJP voters also prefer Scindia over Kamal Nath
• Chouhan and Scindia nearly equally liked by voters
• State government rated positively on education, health, electricity and roads fronts but assessed poorly for water supply, communal harmony and women’s safety
• Dalits, Upper castes and Muslims most critical of MP government’s neglect of their community interests
• On being asked how important an election the SC-ST Act controversy will be for them, nearly two-thirds of Adivasis and half of Dalit and Upper caste voters said it will be “very important”
• Majority of BSP leaning voters say they would have liked a Cong-BSP alliance; Cong leaning voters are not so enthusiastic
• There is a clear class pattern to voting intention; the well-off are more with BJP, the poor more with Congress
• Nearly 3 in every ten Adivasi voters may consider voting for the tribal party JAYS if it fields a candidate from their area; likely to damage Congress the most