ABP News survey: Narendra Modi set to return to power in 2019; UPA struggles to hold ground against NDA

NEW DELHI: The BJP-led NDA will return to power if Lok Sabha elections are held today, latest opinion poll commissioned by ABP News & C-Voter has found out. The survey has revealed that the NDA may get a whopping 276 seats, while the UPA is projected to win 112 seats. The other parties will have a bearing on 155 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha. The BJP had won 282 seats and the NDA 336 in the 2014 general elections. The NDA had a total of 336 seats in the Lower House.

As per the opinion poll, the worrying sign for the BJP is PM Narendra Modi’s waning popularity over the last one year. The good news for the Congress is the steady incremental advance of its President Rahul Gandhi even though he’s trailing way behind from Modi’s popularity chart.

A slight sign of worry for the NDA is the dip in the nationwide vote share compared to 2014. It is seen getting 38% as against UPA’s 25%. BJP's vote share at national level had gone up to 31 per cent from less than 19 per cent during last elections. At the same time, Congress' vote share had dipped to nearly 19 per cent from over 28 per cent.

The survey comes even as the government is facing severe criticism over rising fuel prices, sinking of rupee and allegations of corruption in the Rafale deal.

REGION-WISE PROJECTION:

Uttar Pradesh (80 seats) which sends the maximum members to the Parliament holds the key for both the BJP and the Congress. The survey has suggested that if the Congress contests alone in the state, it is expected to win only two seats while the Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) may get 42 seats and 36 may go to NDA.  Positive signs for the Congress may emerge if it chooses to be a part of the Mahagathbandhan as it could garner 56 seats leaving the rest of the 24 seats to NDA. As per the survey, if Mayawati opts to fight alone, then the NDA is slated to snatch the lion’s share i.e 70 seats while Congress may get just two and the Others to get eight in total. BJP had won 71 seats in the previous elections.

Bihar (40 seats): In Bihar, if LJP and RLSP decide to cobble up and alliance, then NDA may get 22 seats while the UPA may get 18. If the NDA alliance remains intact then it may gather a massive 31 seats leaving the rest 9 for the Opposition parties.

Madhya Pradesh is seen completely titling towards the NDA as it is likely to get 23 out of the 29 seats, the survey revealed. Chhattisgarh, too, is projected to go in favour of the NDA. According to the opinion poll, NDA is seen getting eighteen seats in the 25 seats up for grabs in Rajasthan. The three states continue to remain the strongholds of the saffron party.

Maharashtra (48 seats):  If Congress, NCP stitch an alliance and the Shiv Sena opting to contest alone then UPA’s tally may go up to 30 making NDA win 16 seats. Shiv Sena may just end up with 2 seats in this scenario. What if a Cong-NCP vs BJP-Sena battle emerges in Maharashtra? NDA may then win 36 seats while 12 may go to UPA. Here’s a scenario in which all parties fight alone – BJP 22, Sena 7, Cong 11, NCP 8. It will be interesting to note whether the ‘big brother’ Shiv Sena be actually reduced to the junior partner to BJP in the state.

Odisha (21 seats): BJP is seeking to brighten its prospects in the eastern state where speculations of PM Narendra Modi contesting on a seat in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections are rife. If that happens, BJP is likely to get 13 seats, 6 may go to BJD while Congress may take just two in its kitty.

In the north-eastern states, NDA is likely to get 18 seats out of the stipulated 25. Six are seen going to the UPA.

A landslide victory is predicted for the UPA in Punjab while neighbouring Haryana is seen going the BJP way.  The survey says Delhi will be completely swept by the BJP.

South (129 seats): Regional parties are seen gathering 76 seats in the southern states of Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu. UPA may get 32 while NDA is seen holding onto 21.

Modi still first choice for PM

Coming to the most anticipated question of who is the first choice for the top job, Modi is seen garnering majority of the votes. Rahul Gandhi who received 28% votes in January this year is seen getting his popularity soared by 6 per cent. Modi’s popularity has slumped by at least 6% since the last survey aired. He got 69% votes a year ago.

In the course to gauge the mood of the nation (Desh Ka Mood), 32,547 respondents were extensively surveyed in the period between August 30 - September 30, 2018.