BJP set to form government in Uttarakhand with 32-40 seats: ABP News survey

New Delhi: The BJP is likely to be ahead of the ruling Congress in Uttarakhand polls. According to ABP News-Lok Niti CSDS Survey, BJP is likely to bag 32-40 seats. Congress has got slightly better with 24-32 seats as compared to 22-30 seats in December 2016.

	Seat estimate Dec 2016	Seat estimate Jan 2017
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	35-43	32-40
Indian National Congress (Cong)	22-30	24-32
Others	2-8	3-9

  However the vote difference between Congress and BJP has narrowed considerably over the last one month. The Lokniti-CSDS pre-election opinion poll found the ruling Congress to be securing 36 percent of the votes, which is up by 3 percentage points since the first round of the poll conducted by Lokniti-CSDS in December 2016. Its main rival the BJP, which had been way ahead in the last survey, has seen its vote share drop by one point to 39 percent. In a state where such closely fought contests are the norm rather than the exception, these findings come as no surprise.

	Vote estimate Dec 2016 (%)	Vote estimate Jan 2017 (%)
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	40	39
Indian National Congress (Cong)	33	36
Others	27	25

  The latest survey found the vote difference between the BJP and Congress to have reduced considerably in the Maidaan and Garhwal regions of the state. In Maidaan, the BJP is ahead of the Congress by 39%. In Garhwal, the BJP continues to be comfortably placed but here too the Congress seems to be catching up. Meanwhile, the Congress maintains its overall vote lead over the BJP in the Kumaon region. Region-wise vote estimate - BJP leads in Garhwal and Maidaan; Cong in Kumaon

	Frontrunner	Second
Garhwal  - 25 seats	BJP 47% (+3)	Cong 34% (+10)	19% (-13)
Kumaon - 22 seats	Cong 43% (+1)	BJP 34% (-2)	23% (+1)
Maidaan - 23 seats	BJP 39% (-2)	Cong 33% (+2)	28% (0)

  As one gets closer to the polls, voters seem to be more concerned about the candidates being fielded in their constituencies. Around 31 per cent feel that they will vote on the basis of local candidate. For nearly one-third voters, candidate will be a major voting consideration

	Will vote on Party basis (stated option)	Will vote on Local candidate basis (stated option)	Will vote on CM candidate basis (stated option)	Will vote in Modi’s name (unstated option)	Will vote on basis of Other matters (unstated option)	No response
All voters	47 (36)	31 (19)	9 (6)	9 (17)	1 (8)	4 (14)
Cong voters	58 (44)	23 (23)	12 (8)	1 (3)	3 (10)	3 (12)
BJP voters	39 (33)	29 (16)	8 (6)	21 (37)	<1 (1)	3 (7)

  In terms of caste and community preferences, the Congress was found to be doing far better among Muslims, Dalits and OBCs than it was in the first round. Meanwhile, Brahmins seem to have further consolidated behind the BJP since December. Cong is now doing far better among Muslims, Dalits, OBCs; Brahmins consolidating behind BJP

	Vote for Cong (%)	Vote for BJP (%)	Vote for BSP (%)	Vote for Others (%)
Brahmin	33 (-5)	60 (+14)	3 (+3)	4 (-12)
Rajput	30 (-4)	43 (-8)	5 (-1)	22 (+13)
Other Upper castes	17 (-5)	46 (+5)	3 (+3)	35 (-2)
OBC	38 (+11)	56 (0)	5 (+2)	1 (-13)
Dalit	46 (+18)	34 (-7)	20 (-6)	1 (-4)
Muslim	68 (+21)	10 (+6)	6 (+2)	16 (-29)
Others	29 (+6)	29 (-26)	<1 (-14)	42 (+35)

  An increase in Chief Minister Harish Rawat’s popularity over the last one month seems to be one of the chief reasons for the rise in the Congress’s vote share. In the latest survey the proportion of those favouring Rawat went up to 31 percent. B C Khanduri gets about 14 per cent in favour for CM choice. Harish Rawat spontaneous CM choice of one-third voters compared to one-fifth in Dec

	Dec 2016	Jan 2017
Harish Rawat	19	31
B. C. Khanduri	13	14
Kishore Upadhyay	<1	4
Bhagat Singh Koshiyari	2	3
Other BJP leaders	5	11
Other Congress leaders	2	2
Leaders from other parties	5	1
Did not take any name	54	34

  However, despite Rawat’s appeal, factionalism in the ruling party might hurt its electoral prospects. The survey found 4 percent of the respondents favouring state Congress President Kishore Upadhyay for the post of chief minister and among them only only-fifth (21 percent) were found to be voting for the Congress. Only a fifth of Kishore Upadhyay’s supporters are voting for Cong; meanwhile almost all supporters of various BJP leaders are voting for BJP

	Vote for Cong (%)	Vote for BJP (%)	Vote for Others (%)
Those who want Harish Rawat as next CM	87	4	9
Those who want Kishore Upadhyay as next CM	21	21	58
Those who want other Cong leaders as next CM	78	21	1
Those who want B C Khanduri as next CM	2	95	3
Those who want B S Koshiyari as next CM	2	98	0
Those who want other BJP leaders as next CM	1	99	0

  As the election gets closer, development comes across as the most important issue for the voters with 33 per cent. Around 16 per cent feel unemployment is the main issue while inflation is at 9 per cent. Closer to the election, vikaas emerges as most important issue for one in three voters

Important voting issues	Dec 2016	Jan 2017
Development	17	33
Unemployment	18	16
Inflation	11	9
Poverty	4	9
Corruption	6	6
Roads	6	4
Water, electricity supply	2	3
Demonetization	1	2
Other issues	6	9
No response	29	10

  The survey was conducted from January 15 through January 20, 2017 among 1845 voters in 98 locations (polling stations) spread across 20 assembly constituencies.