Delhi: The Samajwadi Party seems to be on the verge of forming the
next government in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections. Going by a STAR
News-Nielsen Exit poll, the party is just 19 seats short of the 202
seats needed to form the government.
If the party allies with the Congress or the BJP, it will easily cross
this magical figure bringing to an end Mayawati’s reign in the state.
According to the STAR News-Nielsen Exit poll, the BSP, which had
bagged the lion’s share of the seats in the 2007 Assembly Elections
seems to have been left high and dry this time after Maya’s inability to
secure her voters' loyalties and Mulayam Singh's persistence in wooing
The exit poll, conducted in 202 constituencies of the state, predicts 183
seats for the SP in the 403 member house, 83 seats for the BSP-a massive
drop from their share of 206 seats in 2007 elections; 71 seats for the BJP
and 62 seats for the Congress-RLD alliance. The SP is just 19 seats short
of 202 seats needed to form the government.
In vote share, BSP is predicted to get only 24% from its 30.43% in the
2007 elections. SP’s vote share is 27%,
an increase from 25.43% in 2007. Congress alone gets 16% but Congress-RLD
in alliance is getting 19% vote share. The BJP is slated to get 19% of the
votes, Independents: 3% and others 8% of the voters’ share.
share of seats for each party
Bundelkhand: The exit poll shows SP and BSP will bag 5 seats each,
Congress 4 seats, BJP: 3 seats, others 2 of the 19 seats contributed by
Awadh: The STAR News-Nielsen Exit poll for central UP predicts SP
will lead with 32 seats out of the 63 seats contributed by the region,
Congress bags 16 seats, BJP-9 seats, BSP secures 6 seats and none for any
of the other parties.
Western UP: In the western region of the state, STAR News-Nielsen
predicts, Samajwadi Party will lead with 59 seats, BJP will has a strong
hold with 34 seats, BSP to compete with 32 seats, RLD with 11, Congress
to manage only 8 seats. Independents manage only one while other small
parties again do not manage to inspire their presence. The region
contributes 145 seats to the house.
Eastern UP: In the Eastern region of Uttar Pradesh, STAR
News-Nielsen predicts, Samajwadi Party will lead with 87 seats, BSP
manages to win 40 seats, BJP will secure 25 seats, Congress will bag 23
seats. RLD will secure 11 seats, Independents manage a seat while other
small parties can manage none. The region contributes 176 seats- the
largest share in the house.
Samajwadi Party is thus on the verge of forming the government. If
Congress gives them outside support then it is likely that Akhilesh Yadav
will step the ladders of becoming the Chief Minister. On the other hand
Mayawati has received the biggest jolt in the state after losing seats,
power and respect from the Dalits if we go by the results of the exit
Jolt for the
The Congress has suffered the biggest set-back. Even though its seat share
has increased by three times, however, in comparison to the 2009 Assembly
Elections the party has lost 40 seats. Rahul was to have worn the victory
crown but will now have to transfer the burden of his loss to Digvijay
Singh and other party leaders.
On the other hand, the BJP seems to have emerged as the dark horse.
Everybody had ousted BJP’s chances from the state polls; however, Nitin
Gadkari’s decision to make Joshi in-charge of the Uttar Pradesh assembly
elections has come out as a boon for the party.
SP leads in Awadh: Exit Poll
Also read: Exit polls: Impact on four major parties | Rahul's magic may fail to work in UP