High stakes for political parties in todays vote count

High stakes for political parties in todays vote count

By: || Updated: 05 Mar 2012 01:00 PM

New Delhi: The
Assembly election results in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur
and Goa are being considered a semi-final to the 2014 General Elections.
At the moment, theCongress party is in majority in Goa and Manipur. The
Bharatiya Janata Party is attempting to retain power in Punjab and
Uttarakhand. However, all eyes are on Uttar Pradesh- a state where Rahul
Gandhi has put all his energy. If the Congress retains its number four
position, it will raise questions on the leadership of Rahul Gandhi.

Rahul can draw crowds, show people dreams, raise their aspiration level,
but fail to pull votes. The politicians of the Congress party have always
clung to the Nehru-Gandhi family. If Rahul's efforts do not work in UP,
one section in the party will become vocal that the Gandhi scion has not
been able to work his magic and hence the idea of projecting him as a
future prime ministerial candidate must be reviewed. It is quite plausible
that the 'Bring Priyanka back slogan' might again be mooted.

On the other hand, if the Congress wins in Punjab, Manipur and Uttarakhand
and comes as a kingmaker in Uttar Pradesh, Rahul will wear the victory
crown. He will be projected as a candidate for prime minister and the
Congress will contest elections projecting him as the PM candidate. In UP,
if the Mulayam Singh government is formed with the help of Rahul Gandhi
the Manmohan government might still gain. Mayawati will have to continue
her support to the Centre out of political compulsions. On the other hand,
Mulayam will have to lend unconditional support to the government at the
Centre in return for Congress support in the state. In such a scenario,
the Congress can heave a sigh of relief after Mamata Banerjee's relentless
pressure. Rahul can then turn his efforts to Gujarat and pose a challenge
to Narendra Modi in the state Assembly elections due at the end of the
year. The government can also rethink its decision on FDI.

Similarly, the credibility of the BJP will also be at stake. If the party
loses in Punjab and Uttarakhand, its enthusiasm is likely to wane in the
Budget Session. Its aggressive stance towards the Congress might also
reduce. Nitin Gadkari is certain to become a laughing stock, leaders such
as Yeddyurappa will become impatient once more and the path for Narendra
Modi's visit to Delhi might become clearer. On the other hand, if the BJP
wins in Uttarakhand and poses a tough challenge to Mayawati in Uttar
Pradesh, then Gadkari’s political acumen and election strategy will get
a new boost. If the Congress does not lend support to Mulayam Singh and
the BJP is able to help Mayawati form the government, both Mulayam and
Mayawti will be alienated from the UPA which will cause Mamata to exert
more pressure on the government.

For Mayawati, the ideal situation would be that the Congress and the BJP
are both forced to lend support her government should she come back to
power.  Samajwadi Party is on the verge to build the government. If
Congress gives them outside support then it is likely that Mulayam would
do well to recongnize his son Akhilesh Yadav’s contribution and efforts
and make him Chief Minister.  This will mean that the youth wing in the
party will also get some inspiration from Akhilesh. And if they do good
work then it will boost the party’s chances in the Loksabha polls.

Also read: SP
to form govt in UP- STAR News-Nielsen Exit poll
| Rahul's magic may fail to work in UP | Cong ahead in Punjab, BJP to retain U'khand

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