Exit polls Impact on four major parties

By: | Updated: 03 Mar 2012 08:27 AM


The STAR
News-Nielsen Opinion poll for Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections has
predicted a hung assembly with no party bagging enough seats to form the
next government standalone. STAR News offers an analysis on lessons to be
learnt-particularly for the Congress and the BSP from the people's
verdict, in the event of this prediction turning accurate.




Congress: The Congress has suffered the biggest set-back. Even
though its seat share has increased by three times, however, in comparison
to the 2009 Assembly Elections the party has lost 40 seats. Rahul was to
have worn the victory crown but will now have to transfer the burden of
his loss to Digvijay Singh and other party leaders.

One section
in the party will now become vocal that the Gandhi scion has not been able
to work his magic and hence the idea of projecting him as a future prime
ministerial candidate must be reviewed. It is quite plausible that the
‘Bring Priyanka back slogan’ might again be mooted.

It was
Rahul who decided to form a coalition with Ajit Singh. However, the
Congress was not able to reap the fruits of this strategy. The move is
bound to raise questions on Rahul’s coalition politics and social
engineering.

Even though Rahul Gandhi’s personal prestige has
taken a beating, however, the Manmohan Singh government might still gain
from the assembly election results. Mayawati will have to continue her
support to the Centre out of political compulsions. On the other hand,
Mulayam will have to lend unconditional support to the government at the
Centre in return for Congress support in the state. In such a scenario,
the Congress can heave a sigh of relief after Mamata Banerjee’s
relentless pressure.

Bahujan Samajwadi Party:
Mayawati
has received the biggest jolt in the state. They lost power, seats and
also the respect from Dalits. Now that they have lost the power then they
have to give support the government at the Centre. The loss has given them
a warning that the main issue in the state is corruption and they need to
be wary of voters who decide the party’s fate. Mayawati tried to give
weightage to party workers from different castes and communities. It is
interesting to know if the Dalit community themselves has shunned the
party because of this linkage.

Bharatiya Janata Party:
Everybody had ousted BJP’s chances from the state polls; however, Nitin
Gadkari’s decision to make Joshi in-charge of the Uttar Pradesh assembly
elections has come out as a boon for the party. This means Joshi can be
given responsible positions in the state now. This will also give Gadkari
another chance to rule as the party president, increasing his dominance in
the party circles. With the result, BJP seems to look a lot aggressive and
will better their chances in the 2014 general elections.




Samajwadi Party: Samajwadi Party is on the verge to build the
government. If Congress gives them outside support then it is likely that
Akhilesh Yadav will step the ladders of becoming the Chief Minister. This
will mean that the youth wing in the party will also get some inspiration
from Akhilesh. And if they do good work then it will boost the party’s
chances in the Loksabha polls.




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First Published: 03 Mar 2012 08:27 AM
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