Punjab headed for hung assembly, Congress to be single largest party: ABP News Survey

NEW DELHI: The ruling Shiromani Akali-Bharatiya Janata Party combine in Punjab seems to be rapidly losing steam just ahead of the state assembly elections. According to the latest survey by ABP News-Lok Niti CSDS Survey, SAD-BJP has been reduced to 28-36 seats as compared to 50-58 seats in December 2016. Congress seems to have gained with 47-55 seats. While AAP is predicted to dent the SAD share and get about 26-34 seats in Punjab  polls which is headed for a hung assembly.  

	Seat estimate Dec 2016	Seat estimate Jan 2017
Indian National Congress (Cong)	41-49	47-55
Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party (SAD-BJP/SAD+)	50-58	28-36
Aam Aadmi Party-Lok Insaaf Party (AAP+)	12-18	26-34
Others	1-5	0-4

  The second round of the opinion poll conducted by ABP News-Lokniti-CSDS in the state finds the SAD-BJP alliance to have fallen back by six per cent to 28% in terms of vote share in a span of just one month. The Congress which till a month ago was trailing the ruling combine by about three points has now taken the lead with 34 per cent. But the real gainer over the last month has been the Aam Aadmi Party whose vote share has risen by six percentage points to 27 percent. Overall Estimated Vote Share if Assembly Polls had been held in third-fourth weeks of Jan

	Vote estimate Jan 2017 (%)	Change since Dec 2016 (% points)
Indian National Congress (Cong)	34	+3
Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party (SAD-BJP/SAD+)	28	-6
Aam Aadmi Party-Lok Insaaf Party (AAP+)	27	+6
Others	11	-3

  The Aam Aadmi party, which is hoping to build on its 2014 Lok Sabha election breakthrough in Punjab, is doing extremely well in the Malwa region where the survey found it to be leading the triangular race with 33 percent votes. This region holds as many as 69 of the state’s 117 assembly seats. Region-wise Vote: AAP now leads triangular race in Malwa, Cong well ahead in Majha

	Frontrunner	Second	Third
Malwa - 69 seats	AAP+ 33 (26)	Cong 29 (28)	SAD+ 28 (33)	Oth 10 (13)
Majha - 25 seats	Cong 48 (38)	SAD+ 22 (35)	AAP+ 14 (10)	Oth 16 (17)
Doaba - 23 seats	SAD+ 36 (36)	Cong 33 (32)	AAP+ 23 (17)	Oth 8 (15)

  According to the survey, in rural Punjab, Congress is predicted to overtake the ruling alliance. In urban, Congress takes a lead with 35 per cent and AAP is at around 29 per cent. Congress overtakes SAD+ in rural Punjab

	Vote % for SAD+	Vote % for Cong.	Vote % for AAP+	Vote % for Oth.
Rural	28 (38)	33 (31)	26 (19)	13 (12)
Urban	29 (28)	35 (31)	29 (25)	8 (17)

  The survey found Amarinder Singh was the spontaneous CM choice of close to one fourth of the respondents (down by six percentage points from December) and 94 percent of them were found to be voting for the Congress. 6 percent of the respondents favoured AAP’s Bhagwant Mann and 7 per cent to Arvind Kejriwal for the post of Chief Minister. Amarinder Singh is still most voters’ spontaneous preference for CM but his rating has declined in a month; Badals also highly popular

	Dec 2016	Jan 2017
Amarinder Singh	29	23
Prakash Singh Badal	20	19
Harsimrat Kaur Badal	1	6
Bikramjit Majithia	1	4
Sukhbir Badal	1	3
Bhagwant Mann	8	6
Arvind Kejriwal	4	7
Others	5	9
No response	31	23

  According to the survey, around 85% feel that the chief minister of the state must be from Punjab. This sentiment has strengthened further in the last one month.

	‘The chief minister of Punjab must be from Punjab’
	Agree	Disagree
All voters	85 (79)	8 (13)
Cong voters	89 (82)	6 (11)
SAD+ voters	89 (83)	7 (9)
AAP voters	82 (70)	13 (21)

  If in December, SAD-BJP were slightly ahead in the race despite leading a deeply unpopular government, in this round we find that their vote share has declined drastically despite the anti-incumbency sentiment against them having weakened somewhat from 60 percent to 52 percent in the last one month. Anti-incumbency sentiment still strong but has weakened slightly since December

	Dec 2016	Jan 2017
SAD-BJP govt. should get another chance	24	23
SAD-BJP govt. should not get another chance	60	52
Can’t say/Maybe	15	25

  Aam Aadmi Party still stands a spoiler in Punjab according to 47 per cent respondents, while about 32 per cent believe the party is a serious contender and can win. Most still see AAP as a spoiler than a strong contender

	AAP is just a spoiler	AAP a serious contender; can win	No opinion
All voters	47 (43)	32 (34)	21 (23)
Cong voters	65 (56)	15 (20)	19 (24)
SAD+ voters	65 (52)	17 (18)	18 (31)
AAP+ voters	10 (12)	80 (82)	10 (7)
Oth’s voters	27 (38)	12 (33)	61 (29)
Malwa	44	38	18
Majha	50	17	34
Doaba	50	34	16

  According to the survey, there is a split over Congress getting benefitted by Sidhu’s joining. Though in Majha, the move is likely to work or Congress as around 54 per cent support Siddhu joining the party. Siddhu effect is limited to Majha region and is perhaps helping Congress here

	Support Siddhu joining Congress	Oppose Siddhu joining Congress	No response
All voters	36 (28)	36 (20)	28 (52)
Malwa	30 (23)	43 (21)	28 (56)
Majha	54 (44)	17 (16)	29 (40)
Doaba	33 (29)	36 (24)	32 (48)

  The survey found drug addiction to be the third most important election issue after unemployment and development. In the December survey, drug addiction had emerged as the fifth most important issue. Asked an open-ended question about what would be the single-most important issue for them while voting, one in every five (21 percent) voters said it would be joblessness, about one in every six (18 percent) said development, and one in every seven (14 percent) said it would be the problem of drugs. Drug addiction is now third most important election issue after development and unemployment; in December it had been fifth most important

If polls are held today, the most important voting issue will be…	Dec 2016	Jan 2017
Unemployment	20	21
Development	18	18
Drug addiction	6	14
Price rise	13	9
Corruption	8	7
Poverty	5	2
Farmer woes	2	1
Demonetization	2	1
Electricity, roads, water supply	1	2
Other issues	5	6
No opinion	20	19

  The survey was conducted from January 15 through January 24, 2017 among 3462 voters in 187 locations (polling stations) spread across 39 assembly constituencies.