Muslims, SC/ST/OBC and lower income groups seem to form the major support base for AAP.
As compared to the previous snap poll conducted in the second week of January 2015, where 46 per cent intended to vote for AAP, there is an increase of 4 per cent this time with 50 per cent. While for BJP there is a decline by 4 per cent in the recent snap poll and is at 41%.
Kiran Bedi's entry is not helping BJP much to pull in additional voters. But BJP is the party with higher proportion of committed voters with 84% saying 'they shall definitely vote for BJP now'. As can be seen the voters are firmly aligned to their parties with very small proportion intending to switch parties. However, there are some saying they 'may not vote for BJP' but could change mind later. It is is also possible for those currently saying 'may consider vote for BJP'.
Arvind Kejriwal seems to be the most suitable candidate for the position of Chief Minister of Delhi. Kejriwal gets 51% while Kiran Bedi garners 40%.
Three-fourth of the Muslim respondents thinks that Kejriwal is the most suitable CM of Delhi. When we compare results of this wave with that of done previously (2nd week of Jan), we can see that Kejriwal’s popularity has increased by 4% and Kiran Bedi’s has decreased by 4%.
Majority of respondents belonging to lower income group are favouring AAP, whereas those with income on the higher side (Rs. 25,000 per month or more) are favouring BJP.
This reflects on the CM preference as well, with Arvind Kejriwal being the preferred CM candidate for those with lower income group whereas Kiran Bedi is the preferred choice for higher income group.
Data from this survey reflects that, support for AAP is across the age bands but it is more pronounced among the young respondents (18-23 years).
A large majority of Muslims respondents surveyed said that they intend to vote for AAP, with Kejriwal being their pick for Chief Minister of Delhi.
Narendra Modi seems to be the major reason why those intending to vote for BJP are supporting the party. Majority of male respondents are intending to vote for BJP to support Narendra Modi, whereas females are split between Narendra Modi and Kiran Bedi. Base for (number of) Muslim voters is too low to be able to significantly conclude anything.
ABP News- Nielsen India conducted the Snap Poll in Delhi to understand mood of the electorate after Kiran Bedi being made CM candidate by BJP. The snap poll was conducted between Jan 24-Jan 25, 2015 in 70 assembly constituencies of Delhi with 2262 respondents.