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Trump's Iran policy has far too many creases

Seven years ago, an article titled, “What Obama Should Read’, in the Washington Monthly, said of Hooman Majd’s book, The Ayatollahs’ Democracy: “Mr President, if you are serious about negotiating with Iran, you need… the best book on contemporary Iranian culture and all of its complexities and contradictions. Don’t go to Tehran without it.”
President Donald Trump is unlikely to visit Iran any time soon, and certainly not after decertifying a nuclear deal which his predecessor Barack Obama had crafted along with his Iranian counterpart after years of protracted negotiations. But he should still read the book because it will give him a perspective he apparently lacks about Iran’s domestic politics which is not as straightjacketed as many Westerners believe. The book can also give insights on how to deal with Tehran, other than by using coercive methods.
Almost a year ago, a senior Iranian Minister had remarked at an event organised by a think-tank in New Delhi that the US had sought to condemn his country as “they”, and placed it in confrontation with “us” — that is the US-led West. No self-respecting nation, he added, can tolerate such humiliation. The Iranian official had admitted that the nuclear deal was to an extent a beginning towards shattering old mindsets.
But the US is not the only culprit; Iran too had defined the “us” versus “them” paradigm, calling the United States a “Satan” which must be destroyed. Besides, Tehran refuses to even recognise the existence of the nation-state of Israel (another “they”) and has repeatedly called for its obliteration. Nevertheless, it is a fact that the hostility which had dragged on too long, came to be somewhat diluted with the arrival of the nuclear programmes deal. It appeared that not just the US but other Western nations also were prepared to deal with Iran on a more equal footing.
President Obama’s decision to ink the 2015 accord had the enthusiastic endorsement of the permanent members of the UN Security Council as well as Germany (the P5+1). But President Trump’s decision to back out of the agreement does not enjoy similar consensus. France, the UK and Germany have reiterated their support to the deal, saying they “stand committed” to it. While not openly mocking President Trump’s withdrawal, the leaders of these countries have asked the US Administration “to consider the implications to the security of the allies before taking any steps that might undermine the JCPoA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of action).
President Trump must have realised that the days of Reagan-Thatcher and Bush-Blair tango are over. A Trump-May (or whoever becomes the next British Prime Minister) axis is unlikely to shape up in a similar fashion. The American President has not helped matters by pulling out of the Paris climate deal and the Unesco, and ridiculing Nato. On the other hand, he has brought the old warmth back into Israel-US ties — one that had seen a chill in the Obama presidency, with Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sharing a tense relationship.
Sensing the divide, Tehran has been both clever and cautious. Although Iranian President Hassan Rouhani warned that his country would take steps if its interests weren’t served, he also said that “Iran will continue to honour its commitment under the deal”. Rouhani believes that so long as Iran remains on track, the US pullout’s impact can be contained since others such as the UK, France and Germany — along with China and Russia — will not seek to reimpose the stifling sanctions. Iran’s conciliatory tone is also because Trump’s decertification has yet to pass the Congress’s test. The fate will be known in less than a couple of months.
The decision has at least one other major supporter apart from Israel — Saudi Arabia. The Sunni-dominated Arab kingdom has never been at peace with Shia Iran. The American President had taken potshots at Tehran during his recent visit to Saudi Arabia and this had greatly pleased the Saudi royalty which had apprehended tough words from Trump on Salafi-Wahhabi terrorism which has its origins in Saudi Arabia. Not only did he not say a word on that subject, he called on the Saudis to more actively participate in the joint fight against global terror. Iran may be accused of backing terror outfits such as the Hamas and the Hezbollah, but it’s the Salafi-Wahhabi version which has been an international scourge, seeking to devour the West — and India too. Besides, it has spread to not just West Asia but the African continent too.
There is another concern. The United States’ decertification is an embarrassment to the moderate — by Iranian standards — President Rouhani and his associates. It could boost the hardliners that were opposed to the deal. Of these there are many, including the influential clerics. Iran’s Supreme Leader Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei — the only second Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini — had been a reluctant backer of the deal. He had his like-minded colleagues in the clergy and in active politics may seek to exploit the US’s withdrawal from the agreement and shape an aggressive anti-US internal polity. That would be bad for not just Iran but everyone else as well, including India which has in recent months ratcheted up its engagement with Tehran.

(The writer is Visiting Fellow at Vivekananda International Foundation, political commentator and public affairs analyst)  

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