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On a clear day you can see the horizon in 2024

India has just undergone a new clarity in its political arena. It has emerged from the murkiness of the political rhetoric that keenly contested what Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP, and the Sangh Parivar stood for. The Opposition has tried hard, but failed, to stop the BJP’s ascendancy at its three-year mark. It has been soundly defeated in the main battleground state of Uttar Pradesh, the results coming to saffronise the imminent festival of Holi. Former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah of J&K and its opposition National Conference, has been the first politico to declare that there can be no credible challenger to the BJP’s Narendra Modi/Amit Shah juggernaut till at least 2024. Indeed, by high noon on counting day March 11th, Uttar Pradesh leads showed an unprecedented 300 out of 403 seats trending for the BJP. Hill-state Uttarakhand, after several recent tussles with the Congress, is now also decisively won by the BJP. There may be a narrow and account-opening victory in Manipur, in the end for the BJP. This, to add to its growing tally of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh in the North East. In Goa, something of a BJP lucky mascot in the past, there may well be a hung assembly this time as the “see-saw” continues, but BJP might yet scrape a win along with its ally, the MGP, and others. Punjab has voted firmly and strongly in favour of Congress, relegating high profile challenger AAP, with allegedly questionable links to anti-national forces here and abroad, to a much weaker principal opposition. This is very significant in this crucial border state, and comes as a relief to most observers. The national significance of these two, if not three, or even four legislative assembly wins for the BJP, is most pronounced in Uttar Pradesh. Based on this win in UP, by the middle of 2018, the NDA will enjoy a majority in both houses of parliament, for the first time in over three decades. The maturity displayed by the great Indian electorate, soaring above micro calculations of caste, creed and religion, able to deliver strong verdicts through the heat and dust of tumultuous campaigning, is indeed remarkable. The coming majority in the Rajya Sabha will enable passage of important, even contentious, legislation, prior to the 2019 general elections. The new strength could possibly include a reattempt to reform the process of appointments to the higher judiciary. This was shot down by the Supreme Court, despite a new law passed by both houses of parliament, and two-thirds of the state assemblies, that too, in the recent past. Taking their cue from these results, business and industry, the foreign investor, including the make-in-India initiative, the chambers of commerce, plus the domestic retail and institutional investor, will all now build upon it. The results of this spectacular “semi-final” win bode well also for the implementation of various ongoing initiatives of the Modi government. The coming rise and continued bull-run in the Indian stock market, will tend to be not just based on immediate “good news”, but structural in nature, based on an upward re-rating of India’s prospects. It tellingly provides, in early 2017, political clarity on the balance of power likely to sustain through general election year 2019, all the way to the end of the next term in 2024. It must be noted that the GST, with its potential to add 1-2% to GDP, will become operative in July 2017. A slew of other laws including the benami property law, and the bankruptcy law, both equipped with teeth will show results. These will now be vigorously implemented to the expected delight of the poor and numerous voter. Other landmark actions such as electricity for all, housing for all and rural infrastructure and farm produce marketing reforms, will add to prosperity, well-being and the support for the Modi government. The BJP has, it is now clear, after the demonetisation initiative, expanded its base to the rural and urban poor. They, in turn, have strongly backed the prime minister’s initiative borne out by most panchayat, municipal, and legislative assembly elections held since November 8th  2016. The basic shift in perception is that BJP is now truly seen as a champion of the poor. That it is in power also at the centre and in the largest number of other states is another strong factor in its favour when it comes to expected deliveries. Facile threats of a mahagatbandhan challenge in 2019, composed as it is by a  possible aggregation of regional parties and a very weak Congress, is now much diminished. It will, likely, not hold water, or even hang together going forward. On the contrary, Bihar may well come back to the NDA with the possible desertion of its winning mahagatbandhan. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and the JD(U) could return to the NDA fold in preparation for 2019. The BJP seems to have forged something of a rainbow coalition in the political “laboratory” of UP, including, reportedly, young Muslims drawn to the BJP message of “Vikas”, and Muslim women drawn to the BJP’s stance against triple talaq. This incipient Muslim migration towards “Sabka Saath Sabka Vikaas”, once thought impossible, could pick up speed, and become a mass trend. This will not only strengthen the “truly secular” BJP as the party for today and the future, but bodes well for the future of India’s 20 crore Muslims, particularly in the absence of a credible opposition. That the opposition Congress, SP, BSP, RLD, TMC, the Left, and others, have done little over decades besides pay lip-service to minority interests, and exploit the Muslim vote bank, should now only hasten the process of this migration. (Gautam Mukherjee is a blogger on politics, economics and policy.) Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.
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